by Hannes Kunz on Fri, Nov 18, 2011 - 02:45 (EDT).
definitely add to the volatility in price, as (perceived or real) shortages last for much longer than they would in a more flexible production environment. Equally, if new output hits a downturn - which is what largely happened with a lot of the new natural gas capacity in the United States in 2008/9, the new capacity which needs to keep producing despite not covering full cost - due to asset depreciation and time limits on leases - can add to the extension of periods at lower prices.
Long time leads...